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Mesoscale Discussion 644
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0644
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

   Areas affected...South Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

   Valid 052146Z - 052315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186

   SUMMARY...An organized/bowing cluster of storms over South Texas
   will continue to pose local risk for hail and damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows bowing cluster of strong storms
   moving southeastward across Deep South Texas at around 25 kt.  The
   storms are being fed by around 30 kt southeasterly low-level inflow
   per the latest CRP WSR-88D VWP, which -- along with ample downstream
   instability -- suggests that the storms will be sustained over the
   next hour or two, with continued southeastward movement.

   With that said, indications are that capping is stronger to the
   south, which may hinder the advance of the convection on the
   southern end to some degree.  As such, while storms are on a
   trajectory to move into portions of the BRO CWA, new WW south of the
   existing watch may not be needed, though we will continue to monitor
   convective evolution in the near term, in that regard.

   ..Goss.. 05/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   27889950 28489860 28299724 27759679 26749721 27049864
               27499915 27889950 

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