|
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Apr 25, 2010
Updated: Sun Apr 25 08:50:02 UTC 2010
| D4 | Wed, Apr 28, 2010 - Thu, Apr 29, 2010 |
D7 | Sat, May 01, 2010 - Sun, May 02, 2010 |
| D5 | Thu, Apr 29, 2010 - Fri, Apr 30, 2010 |
D8 | Sun, May 02, 2010 - Mon, May 03, 2010 |
| D6 | Fri, Apr 30, 2010 - Sat, May 01, 2010 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250849
SPC AC 250849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2010
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK IS STILL INDICATED
BY THE MODELS...THOUGH MODEL CHANGES -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE GFS
-- OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE CLOUDED THE PICTURE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE EVOLVING SEVERE POTENTIAL.
BOTH MODELS BRING A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DAY 4
/WED. APR. 28/. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5 /THU. APR. 29/...THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE -- AND THUS WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
SURGE INTO THE PLAINS -- AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...AND AS COMPARED
WITH EARLIER RUNS. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A THREAT CENTERED OVER
THE KS/OK VICINITY DAY 5...ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO THE DAY 6 AREA ISSUED
IN THE PRIOR FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS NOW PROGS A COLD FRONTAL
SURGE INTO CENTRAL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A THREAT AREA
FARTHER S.
THEREFORE...WHILE SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 5 AND
BEYOND AS THE COMPLEX WRN AND CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH
EVOLVES...DECREASING CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION
PRECLUDES THE CONTINUATION OF A THREAT AREA ATTM.
..GOSS.. 04/25/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
|
|
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
