DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST WED FEB 08 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO
THURSDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN U.S.
WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM
PROSPECTS LIMITED AND CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.  

...WRN THROUGH SRN TX...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN TX WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SRN BAJA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS A JET STREAK
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW DROPS SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AREA. STRENGTHENING WSWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EWD ACROSS TX...WHILE VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW UPSTREAM OF RETREATING RIDGE ADVECTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTH TX. NET RESULT MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MUCAPE OVER S TX DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN NM INTO PARTS OF WRN TX WHERE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST AND INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD
S-CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 02/09/2012

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CST THU FEB 09 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CONUS...THE EXTENSIVENESS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE/ARCTIC AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA/CONUS WILL BE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR A CONVECTIVELY QUIET SCENARIO ON SATURDAY. ACROSS
THE WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA BECOMES A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE /NORTHEASTWARD/ OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

IN ALL...SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED CONUS-WIDE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSTMS WILL BE LIMITED. ANY TSTM POTENTIAL /ALBEIT LOW/ FOR THE
PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO FAR SOUTH TX LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/FOUR CORNERS IN GENERAL ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING
SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH.

..GUYER.. 02/09/2012

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST THU FEB 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE CONTINUED BLOCKING INFLUENCE OF A WESTERN CANADA HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE INTO
FRIDAY. WITHIN THE BASE OF A PREVALENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA AND THE CONUS...AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST STATES IN
TANDEM WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. 

...SOUTH TX...
TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...DPVA/WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL BE BASED ABOVE A SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER...WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE A
SEVERE RISK.

...FL...
MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD AS INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
ALOFT OCCURS. WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED SCENARIO...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TSTMS
MAY REMAIN FOCUSED OFFSHORE. OVERALL...SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 02/09/2012

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST THU FEB 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRENGTHENED OFFSHORE FLOW IS ONGOING ACROSS SRN
CA...BUT AS AN EWD SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN U.S.
AND A SRN BAJA CA UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD...THE STRONGEST
DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THIS EWD
TRANSLATION OCCURS...SRN CA WILL RETURN TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW
REGIME...AND STRONG/GUSTY NLY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH WITH MARGINAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.

FARTHER EAST...WLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS SEWD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC. THE MAINTENANCE OF DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LOW ERC VALUES WILL TEMPER
THE THREAT.

..HURLBUT.. 02/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CST THU FEB 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A SK/AB/MB HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP
SWD AND EWD...MAINTAINING A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
SHIFT EWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHILE ANOTHER SERIES OF
COMPACT UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS ONSHORE. DRIER SURFACE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA...BUT RECENT
RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT.

..HURLBUT.. 02/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...