MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 221849Z - 222115Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN COLORADO
   FRONT RANGE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WHILE EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
   HIGH PLAINS OF ECENTRAL/SERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
   TSTMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT...BUT A WW IS NOT
   EXPECTED ATTM.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND LOCAL WEB CAMS SHOWS MODERATE CU
   ALONG MUCH OF THE SRN CO FRONT RANGE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALREADY
   DEVELOPED BETWEEN COS AND DEN...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED SWD OVER THE SRN CO FRONT RANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   RECENT SFC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED AN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
   AXIS ALONG AND ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD INTO NRN LAS ANIMAS
   COUNTY /BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND PUEBLO/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   THAT 70/45 AT PUEBLO WOULD HAVE MINIMAL REMAINING CINH AND AROUND
   500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 50
   KTS/ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT. ANY ISOLATED SVR TSTM
   ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
   INSTABILITY AXIS INTO ECENTRAL/SERN CO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   OTHER TSTMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE NRN CO FRONT RANGE WILL
   ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER NERN CO.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/22/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
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