MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 181859Z - 182000Z
   
   A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ISOLATED
   TORNADOES AND HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER MUCH OF LOWER
   MI. HORIZONTAL ROLLS BENEATH CAPPING INVERSION HAVE CHANGED
   CHARACTER OVER WRN MI SUGGESTING CAPPING IS BEING REMOVED BY COOLING
   ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZE
   LOOKS TO BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR S AS NRN IN WHERE CU FIELD IS ALSO
   INCREASING AND DEWPOINTS ARE RISING.
   
   CONTINUED HEATING AS WELL AS COOLING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS
   TO DEVELOP. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE
   LIKELY...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/18/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
   
   41058723 42528632 44108632 45118616 45538523 45048358
   42578430 40868506 40728585 40738649