MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291357Z - 291530Z
   
   AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
   MORNING FROM THE ARKLATEX VICINITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   AR AND NORTHERN LA. AS SURFACE BASED STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY...A
   WATCH COULD BE NEEDED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   WITHIN A LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
   OF HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS
   REFLECT A GRADUAL INTENSITY INCREASE IN STORMS SINCE DAWN ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE TOTAL INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED PER 12Z
   OBSERVED LITTLE ROCK/SHREVEPORT RAOBS...MODIFIED/RUC SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE STRONG
   KINEMATICS/WIND FIELDS AND HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT THAT IS IN
   PLACE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR AN
   INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE BASED STORMS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING
   WINDS/A FEW TORNADOES AND PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/29/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   34519391 34969235 34339091 33169122 32359185 32349388
   33299432