MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0117 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL INTO PARTS OF NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 071817Z - 071945Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WEST OF LUBBOCK. 
   THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING NEAR A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
   VORTICITY...WITHIN BROADER SCALE CIRCULATION SHIFTING OUT OF THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE LOW-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLOWLY NOSING
   THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
   NEGLIGIBLE CAP...AND IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE ACROSS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK THROUGH 19-20Z.  IF
   THIS OCCURS...LAPSE RATES BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ARE BECOMING
   VERY STEEP...CONTRIBUTING TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. 
   
   HOWEVER...MUCH OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MAIN
   MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
   TOWARD THE TRIPLE POINT LOW BETWEEN ABILENE AND WICHITA FALLS BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PROBABLY WILL BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  AND... THOUGH
   THE MAIN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS WELL TO THE EAST...
   SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY
   LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR A TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN
   THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/07/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   34320195 34240106 34140013 34359952 34319881 33689810
   33029802 32309825 31909911 32160052 32560112 32780198
   32980266 33380286 33700242