MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY...PA...CT...MA...VT...NH...ME
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 271520Z - 271715Z
   
   STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY WARM/UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS FROM NERN PA/SRN NY TO SRN ME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
   COMBINATION OF WEAKLY CAPPED UNSTABLE AIR...STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
   FRONT...AND DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40KT...SHOULD ALL LEND
   SUPPORT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ORGANIZED FAST-MOVING STORMS.
   WITH THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...A
   WATCH APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE REGION SHORTLY.
   
   WEAK PRE-FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS HAS FORMED WITH HEATING OF THE
   DAY FROM NERN PA/SERN NY ACROSS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WARMING WAS
   OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND EXPECT
   MUCAPE/SBCAPE TO CLIMB INTO THE 500-1000 J PER KG WITHIN THIS AXIS
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG FORCING AND INCREASINGLY
   STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING SEWD
   ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PROMOTE STORM FORMATION AND ORGANIZATION IN
   A SWATH GENERALLY ALONG A AVP-POU-CEF-MHT-PWM LINE. STORMS WITHIN
   THIS CORRIDOR MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. HOWEVER
   LINEAR FORCING ON THE FRONT AND DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WOULD
   SUGGEST EVOLUTION INTO FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN INCREASING
   CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITHIN THE 17-22Z TIME FRAME. A RELATIVELY
   NARROW SW-NE ORIENTED WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   42727095 43666988 44656783 45256754 45326855 44567008
   43787193 42957407 42167621 41637846 41267826 41007676
   40937454 41657318 42227139