MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...ERN WY AND FAR NE CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291724Z - 291900Z
   
   A HAIL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE MT...ERN WY AND FAR NE CO THIS
   AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN WY AND
   NRN CO EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC
   LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS THE
   MD AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
   RUC ANALYSIS AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 4 TO 5 KM AS EVIDENT ON
   THE SRN WYOMING PROFILER SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
   ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS
   SUGGEST STRONG MIXING WILL OCCUR AND THIS WILL DRY THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH TIME PUTTING A HAMPER ON DESTABILIZATION. AS A
   RESULT...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. THE RELATIVELY
   DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO MAKE STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
   THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   41170504 42070623 43890644 45090678 46070638 46230565
   45960476 44760456 43550468 42700432 41620297 40440284
   40230433