MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 221431Z - 221600Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO
   AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS FROM CNTRL VT SSWWD ALONG THE HUDSON
   VALLEY HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH A GENERAL
   SYSTEM MOVEMENT OF 220/25 KT.  MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
   THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   PIVOTING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. 
   CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS INHIBITING STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING E OF
   ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT
   A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   MODIFICATION OF 12Z ALB SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME
   PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   MID/UPPER 70S AND SBCAPES INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG.  MODESTLY
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
   EMBEDDED IN LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SHIELD WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
   BEING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/22/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
   
   41547323 41507367 41787415 43697389 44717344 44937278
   44917179 42227246