MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 221742Z - 221915Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
   INCREASE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DEEPENING
   CUMULUS/EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
   CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY.  RUC DIAGNOSTIC
   FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING AS TEMPERATURES WARM
   THROUGH THE 70S WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.  EXPECT
   TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES
   AND LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS NOW OVER THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY SPREAD EWD/NEWD.
   
   AREA VWPS INDICATE MODEST SWLY/WSWLY TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WHICH
   MAY SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS.  THE MORE
   INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/22/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   42047474 42207910 42837784 43557614 44157528 44527453
   44277376 43577394 42657402