MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN NEB INTO SERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 151937Z - 152100Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD
   OVER N-CNTRL NEB /NAMELY ROCK...HOLT...LOUP AND GARFIELD COUNTIES/
   ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OR PERHAPS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM
   EARLIER STORMS.  AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME HOT AND INCREASINGLY
   MOIST WITH MLCAPES NOW APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG.  WHILE AREA IS IN
   IMMEDIATE WAKE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR MCV MOVING ACROSS SERN
   NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN UPSTREAM
   IMPULSE IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH SERN WY AND WRN NEB. 
   INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE COUPLED WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT
   SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 21-22Z.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /REF. NELIGH NEB PROFILER/
   WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30 KT OR LESS.  BUT THE PRESENCE OF
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUGGEST
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
   AND HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/15/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
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