MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL NV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 212144Z - 212245Z
   
   TSTM INTENSITY HAS INCREASED THE PAST HOUR.  A WW IS UNLIKELY BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING STORMS ACROSS
   N-CENTRAL NV EXTENDING SWWD TOWARDS 40 MI SSW NFL.  WHILE IT APPEARS
   CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DISCRETE FOR SOME TIME...A TREND TOWARDS
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE LIMITING
   FACTOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INITIAL TSTM COVERAGE AIDING IN
   CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 
   NONETHELESS...SURFACE MODIFIED 18Z LKN/REV RAOBS INDICATE 500-1000
   J/KG MLCAPE.  WITH SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF NRN CA UPPER
   DISTURBANCE...PRIND GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
   TO THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGEST
   /30-40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR/.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
   PRESENT...EXPECTING PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 07/21/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...
   
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