MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE NY/VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 242203Z - 242330Z
   
   LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
   ONGOING STORMS.  HOWEVER...WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE
   BEGINNING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHERE
   HEATING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL HAS YIELDED 250 TO 750 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
   NY...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS OCCURRING WITHIN A BROKEN LINE
   OF CELLS FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY SWD TO SARATOGA COUNTY NY.  DESPITE
   MODEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...RELATIVELY STRONG
   MID-LEVEL SLYS ON ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND.  THUS
   -- POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTS WITH
   STRONGER CELLS.
   
   WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...THE
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD SLOWLY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY --
   AND AS A RESULT A WANE IN THE SEVERE THREAT WHICH WILL LIKELY
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/24/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   45047367 44977309 43977297 42537451 42157870 42447931
   43357911 44077647 44987502