MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0117 AM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 798...
   
   VALID 030617Z - 030715Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 798
   CONTINUES.
   
   MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WSWWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL LA. THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR
   OR TWO. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME...SO AN
   ADDITIONAL WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   ONGOING MCS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN AR THROUGH NE LA INTO SRN MS.
   THE APEX OF THE MCS IS MOVING WSWWD AT AROUND 40 TO 45 KT. LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RUC PFCS SHOW 2500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER NRN LA IN
   ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF BOUNDARY
   LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE
   INHIBITION DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A RAPID DEMISE OF THE
   MCS. WITH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND A NELY REAR INFLOW
   JET...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WSWWD PROPAGATION FOR SOME TIME.
   HOWEVER...TRENDS IN RADAR DATA WITH THE OUTFLOW SURGING WWD AHEAD OF
   THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES SUGGEST THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY
   LAYER IS RESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE MCS. ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR APEX OF THE MCS NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS...BUT OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR THE ACTIVITY TO
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/03/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
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