MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN CO...NWRN KS...SWRN-CENTRAL NEB.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 803...
   
   VALID 040406Z - 040530Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 803
   CONTINUES.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 345Z INDICATES FRONT FROM NEAR SUX SWWD THROUGH
   LXN...STILL DRIFTING SWD AS COLD FRONT...THEN BECOMING
   QUASISTATIONARY SWWD TO INTERSECTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NRN
   HITCHCOCK COUNTY NEB.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM LINCOLN
   COUNTY NEB SWD OVER THOMAS COUNTY KS THEN SWWD INTO EXTREME
   E-CENTRAL CO.  BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...BUT FASTER
   ACROSS NEB PORTION.
   
   TSTMS HAVE DIMINISHED OR DISSIPATED OVER MOST OF REGION EXCEPT FOR
   CLUSTER EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS LINCOLN/HAYES/PERKINS COUNTIES NEB
   AS OF 345Z...JUST BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  ISOLATED HAIL AND
   STG-SVR GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE TSTMS AS WELL AS WITH ANY
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF THAT PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING
   REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...A PROCESS ACTING TO MAXIMIZE
   SLOPE OF ASSOCIATED DENSITY CURRENT AND LIFT THEREON.  MODIFIED
   RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG BUOYANCY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH FRONT...AS MUCAPES INCREASE RAPIDLY TO OVER 3000 J/KG FOR
   PARCELS THAT CAN BE FORCED TO LFC.  CONVECTION FARTHER S INVOF KS/CO
   BORDER SHOULD REMAIN WEAKER...WITH MORE MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
   BUOYANT INFLOW AIR MASS LOCATED FARTHER NE OVER NEB...ALONG AND N OF
   SFC FRONT.  ACCORDINGLY...PER COORDINATION W/GLD...KS PORTION WW AND
   SWRN TIER OF NEB COUNTIES ALONG BORDER ARE BEING PULLED FROM WW. 
   GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD POOL FARTHER N...WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E
   BEHIND MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION IN NEB AS WELL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
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