MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2330
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NM...EXTREME SCNTRL CO AND FAR W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 916...917...
   
   VALID 120046Z - 120215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   916...917...CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 916 COVERING CNTRL/NRN NM AND EXTREME
   SCNTRL CO IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EITHER
   REPLACED OR EXTENDED BY LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES PENDING
   CURRENT STORM EVOLUTIONS. 
   
   WEAK RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE WAS SPREADING NEWD IN WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE ROTATING NWD OUT OF CNTRL NM AND WAS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
   DECREASING TSTMS UPSTREAM ACROSS SE AZ/NRN MEXICO.  BAND OF
   MORE-OR-LESS DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM SERN
   CO INTO THE KLVS AREA.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE
   NERN NM PLAINS AND EXTREME SERN CO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   EVENING.  NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INFLOW FROM THE BAND OF STORMS ALONG
   THE TX/NM BORDER WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE SVR THREATS...ESPECIALLY
   TORNADO RISKS AS EFFECTIVE PARCELS BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE SFC.
   
   MEANWHILE...HIGHER SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FROM FAR W TX NEWD INTO
   SERN/ECNTRL NM AND INTO THE FAR WRN TX PNHDL.  HERE...MIXED STORM
   MODES CONSISTING OF BOWS AND DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUE TO
   THRIVE...FEEDING ON STRONGER INSTABILITY.  H85-H7 SLY JET IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 06Z COINCIDENT WITH THE EWD EDGING OF
   STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THREATS FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER
   FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.  MOREOVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   TURNING AND MAINTENANCE OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE PARCELS WILL CONTINUE
   THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH DISCRETE CELLS.  PARTS OF THE
   REGION WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/12/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...
   
   34020786 36860717 37910512 37660322 35420249 33840269
   31670436 31280578 31990714