MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS SWWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE OK/TX
   PNHDLS AND THE TX S PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 302039Z - 302215Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM E
   OF GCK SSWWD TO NEAR BGD AND AMA TO W OF LBB.  THIS FEATURE HAS
   MIXED FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
   HOWEVER RECENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IT HAS DECELERATED
   /EVEN STALLED OVER WRN KS/.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
   STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING EWD THROUGH CNTRL INTO ERN
   CO...WHICH IS ALSO CORROBORATED BY GRADUALLY BACKING PROFILER/VWP
   WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS E OF DRYLINE.
   
   AS MENTIONED IN 20Z OUTLOOK...TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY W OF DRYLINE
   HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
   OK PNHDL INTO FAR SWRN KS.  THUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AN
   ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL
   THERMAL AXIS AND PERHAPS SUSTAIN ITSELF EWD INTO STRONG CAP. 
   CURRENTLY...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STORM INITIATION APPEAR TO BE:
   1) NEAR DRYLINE UNDULATION OVER MEADE COUNTY KS...AND 2) NE-SW
   DRYLINE SEGMENT FROM E/NE OF BGD SSWWD TO N OF LBB.  SHOULD
   DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION BECOME SUSTAINED...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL EVOLUTION WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/30/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34210146 34280210 35030243 36920085 37990044 38720056
               38949987 38359927 37139938 35460029 34220112 34210146