MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AR INTO NW MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762...
   
   VALID 091545Z - 091715Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 762 CONTINUES.
   
   ALONG A FRONTAL OR PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ADVANCING INTO/THROUGH
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A SURFACE LOW/WAVE APPEARS TO BE THE
   FOCUS FOR STRONGEST STORM ACTIVITY.  THIS FEATURE IS NOW EAST OF EL
   DORADO...AND TRACKING EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GREENVILLE MS.  ITS
   LONGEVITY AT CURRENT STRENGTH IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...AS IT APPEARS
   AREA OF ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER FORCING IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS
   NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  HOWEVER...MODEST INFLOW
   OF VERY MOIST AIR CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 1000+ J/KG...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW...WITH
   40-50+ KT IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...SUGGESTS A CONTINUING RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
   MISSISSIPPI AT LEAST THROUGH 17-18Z.  RISK FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES
   ...MAINLY IF ANY ISOLATED STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE
   ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   33949135 34389085 34869031 34858984 34308982 33349041
               32839103 32529161 33049171 33949135