MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0709 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX SEWD INTO CNTRL MS
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 091309Z - 091815Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HRLY
   RATES TO AROUND 0.05 IN.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
   ACROSS AR AND NRN MS...WITH A RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME
   DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH ADVECTION AND
   EVAPORATIVE COOLING. AS DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION PROFILES
   STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
   MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING POTENTIAL ALOFT
   FROM SHV TO JAN...BUT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...SOME WARMING THROUGH
   ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
   FREEZING WARM NOSE ALOFT. THESE PROFILES WILL FAVOR FREEZING
   RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST N OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE.
   PRECIPITATION MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES BUT THE WARMING ALOFT
   COULD CHANGE IT BACK TO FREEZING RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
   THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW WILL
   OCCUR WITH NWD EXTENT AND INTO THE DEEPER COLD AIR...FROM THE
   ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL AR BY MIDDAY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   33519210 33209103 33019044 32769032 32479027 32329031
               32159048 32069063 32579294 32939428 33479475 33789410
               33519210