MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH...NRN WV...NWRN VA...SWRN/S-CENTRAL
   PA...NWRN MD INCLUDING PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 261230Z - 261700Z
   
   POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH 18Z FOR MIXTURE OF MDT/ISOLD HVY
   SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES .1-.2
   INCH/HOUR...INVOF OH RIVER VALLEY FROM PKB AREA NEWD INTO WRN PA.
   
   PRECIP FARTHER SW ACROSS ERN KY...FAR WRN VA AND SWRN WV HAS BEEN
   OCCURRING AS RAIN IN CONVEYOR OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA JUXTAPOSED
   WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE DCVA/ASCENT IN MIDLEVELS. THIS TREND
   SHOULD CONTINUE...YIELDING MIX OF PRECIP TYPES AS IT CROSSES NEAR-
   TO BELOW-FREEZING SFC AIR.  12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THERMAL
   AXIS NEAR TRI...CRW...MGW...LBE LINE...BRACKETED BY FREEZING LINE
   NEAR LEX...ZZV...30 E HLG...20 N LBE THEN BECOMING ERRATIC DEPENDING
   ON ELEVATION SWD AND SEWD ACROSS NWRN WV AND NWRN MD/PANHANDLE
   REGION.  WEAK CAA AND DEEP-LAYER COOLING SHOULD HELP TO SHUNT
   FREEZING LINE SEWD OVER OH RIVER AREA THROUGH FORENOON HOURS...WITH
   LOWER DEW POINTS SUGGESTING SOME WET-BULB COOLING ALSO TO OCCUR OVER
   ERN OH/SRN PA/NRN WV PANHANDLE REGION.  ALTHOUGH MUCH OF OH VALLEY
   OF WV/SERN OH IS JUST ABOVE FREEZING ATTM...SNOW IS LIKELY DUE TO
   COLUMNAR COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG SWATH OF DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT...AS EVIDENT IN TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS.  UNTIL THAT
   OCCURS...TEMPS IN SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE SFC MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY.  FARTHER SW INVOF VA/WV
   BORDER AND WRN MD...SUPERFREEZING LAYER MAY BE MAINTAINED ABOVE
   SFC...WITH FREEZING RAIN BEING MORE DOMINANT THAN
   SNOW...TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD SNOW NWD OVER PA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   LAT...LON   39198222 40128131 40738025 40897928 40727827 40247749
               38997753 39027919 37957984 38487984 39047975 40337940
               39548071 39228140 39198222