MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CST WED FEB 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL UT...INCLUDING THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 170121Z - 170515Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR PROVO
   TO THE UT/ID BORDER BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
   THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH ONE INCH PER
   HOUR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AFTER AROUND
   06Z.
   
   AT 01Z A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR LGU TO OGD TO JUST WEST
   OF SLC. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAINFALL DUE TO
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S...A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS
   EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S WITH WET BULB VALUES NEAR
   FREEZING. A BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
   /EVIDENT IN 01Z MESOANALYSIS/ COUPLED WITH APPROACHING VORTICITY MAX
   AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL AID IN FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH
   SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY
   SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST RATES EXPECTED THROUGH
   04Z-05Z. 00Z SLC RAOB ALSO INDICATED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
   MUCAPE VALUES...THEREFORE SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY HEAVY SNOW.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SLC...
   
   LAT...LON   41971199 41941171 41731151 41031142 40311140 39921152
               39861171 39961202 40341218 41091223 41751212 41971199