MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0843 PM CST WED FEB 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SWRN MO...SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 240243Z - 240345Z
   
   RETRANSMISSION FOR AWIPS.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP AND MOVE E-NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN OK AND SERN KS INTO
   SWRN MO THROUGH MID-EVENING. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
   KS AND NERN OK THROUGH MID EVENING. A ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
   /MUCAPE VALUES AOA 500 J/KG PER 00Z RUC ANALYSIS/ WILL CONTINUE TO
   COMBINE WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST
   TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SWRN MO AFTER 02Z. EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES OF 50-55 KT WILL PROMOTE MARGINAL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
   HOWEVER...THE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY OR STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING WILL PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE THREAT...AND A WW
   WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   38019368 37259372 36719457 36379542 36169647 36469707
               37059648 38229485 38019368