MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0825 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND...W KY...SERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 280225Z - 280330Z
   
   NOSE OF THE 45 KT SWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THERMAL RIBBON IN
   ERN MO AND SRN IL THIS EVENING.  ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO A RASH OF TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA.  PRESENCE OF 7-8
   DEG C PER KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WILL AT LEAST BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   SLIGHTLY GREATER CONCERN EXISTS FOR A FEW CELLS TO BECOME ROOTED
   CLOSER TO THE SFC...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN IL...EXTREME SWRN IND SWWD
   WHERE AIR MASS HEATED A LITTLE MORE TODAY.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
   BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING LARGE LOW-LEVEL LOOPED HODOGRAPHS
   AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO EXISTS ALONG WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH INDIVIDUAL
   DISCRETE CELLS THAT DO NOT SUFFER FROM TOO MUCH COMPETITION FROM
   SURROUNDING CONVECTION.  OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY VERY WELL
   EVOLVE AS WIND/HAIL THREATS.
   
   WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   40178771 40398664 40348601 39968573 39298595 38658617
               38108699 37488781 37068826 36808919 37008967 37439033
               37989060 38649081 39309037 40178771