MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND/E-CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 232020Z - 232145Z
   
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR SMALL
   HAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IND/E-CNTRL IL. A WW IS
   NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
   
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE INVOF
   THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL IND/E-CNTRL
   IL...WHERE A RECENT UPWARD TREND IN CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A MID-LEVEL COLD CORE CROSSES THE AREA
   /500-MB TEMPS AROUND -26 C PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/...STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES AOA
   1000 J/KG. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
   40 TO 50 KT TO PROMOTE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT
   THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING
   MARKED BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S/...THE
   DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED UPWARD BUOYANCY IS NOT FORECAST TO
   SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...WITH MOST HAILSTONES EXPECTED TO BE SMALL.
   THUS...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
   
   ..COHEN.. 03/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   LAT...LON   39798504 39588589 39698751 40298821 40918771 41098639
               40878537 40488493 39798504