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Mesoscale Discussion 579 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL AND E TX.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 204...205...
VALID 252357Z - 260200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204...205...CONTINUES.
CLUSTER OF STG-SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES TO MOVE
SEWD FROM EXTENDED COUNTIES OF OLDER WW 201 INTO NRN PORTIONS WW
204. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT SRN PORTIONS WW 205 WITHIN NEXT 2-3
HOURS.
SFC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION FROM PSN WNWWD TO SUPERCELL NEAR CRS. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/VORTICITY/SRH AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALL SHOULD REMAIN
MAXIMIZED IN FAVOR OF CONTINUED SUPERCELL RISK.
DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED FROM FTW AREA SSWWD ACROSS CORYELL/KENDALL
COUNTIES...THROUGH INFLECTION POINT NEAR BANDERA/BEXAR COUNTY
LINE...THEN SSEWD AND SWD OVER DEEP S TX. ALTHOUGH DIABATIC
HEATING/MIXING TO ITS W WILL WEAKEN THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS...DRY
ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHUNT DRYLINE EWD ACROSS I-35
CORRIDOR...AS COLD FRONT OVER N-CENTRAL TX OVERTAKES IT FROM N-S.
WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND DRYLINE. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SVR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP S OF CRS-AREA ACTIVITY ALONG DRYLINE AND/OR SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT. SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RATHER
UNCERTAIN...OWING TO COMBINATION OF
1. LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL SAMPLING OF CINH S OF I-20...AND
2. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING SRN
EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING ALONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTO
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CINH.
..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30059873 31979715 32129597 32109428 31559379 30419495
30059873
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