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Mesoscale Discussion 596 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 216...
VALID 262053Z - 262200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 216 CONTINUES.
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COMMENCE BY 22Z WITHIN AN
AXIS OF PERSISTENT ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE
LK MI SHORE IN SWRN MI SWD INTO NWRN IND. HEATING CONTINUES
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AXIS WHICH WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
/ALBEIT REMAINING WEAK/. LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 AS SAMPLED BY WOLCOTT
IND PROFILER AND AREA VWP DATA. AS SUCH...PROPENSITY FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED CELL WITH ATTENDANT THREATS
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL. GIVEN THE CONTINUED NEWD PIVOTING OF
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CU FIELD HAS STRUGGLED TO
INCREASE SWWD OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IN NWRN IND. IF THIS TREND
PERSISTS...ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL IND.
..GRAMS.. 04/26/2011
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 41778494 40478577 40278665 40418730 41078720 42248654
43188547 43178490 42978441 42708434 41778494
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