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Mesoscale Discussion 602 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN/ERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...SWRN AR.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...220...
VALID 262343Z - 270145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...220...CONTINUES.
CONTINUE WWS..ESPECIALLY S AND E OF METROPLEX. WHILE COLD FRONT HAS
PASSED THROUGH DFW AREA...SVR TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL STILL ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THAT AREA. SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING TORNADO THREAT MAY
INCREASE OVER PARTS OF NE TX...SWRN AR AND NRN LA THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING.
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS...SOME WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING TORNADOES BETWEEN
CRS-TYR...WILL MOVE EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS NE TX INTO ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT NEAR ACT...ALONG WITH ANY TSTMS THAT MAY EVOLVE FROM
DEEP TOWERS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY FARTHER S ALONG DRYLINE TO N OF
SAT...ALSO MAY POST TORNADO RISK AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO ENVIRONMENT
THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
LOWERING LCL THROUGH EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
NRN LA BEFORE 01Z. ALTHOUGH PRE-STORM/WARM-SECTOR MLCAPE WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT FROM CURRENT 2500-3500 J/KG VALUES...LOW-LEVEL
THETAE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE PROFILE AND
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. MEANWHILE...HODOGRAPHS WILL
ENLARGE DUE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ...RESULTING IN EXTREME 0-1 KM SRH
OF AOA 500 J/KG OVER NE TX NEAR AND N OF ACT-LFK LINE...TRENDING TO
STILL-FAVORABLE 200-300 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WW 220. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH WW
220...HOWEVER ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL POST RISK OF
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADOES.
ADDITIONAL LEFT SPLITS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS UNTIL LLJ SUBSTANTIALLY
ENLARGES LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND REMOVES NEGATIVE SRH.
..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 29959840 31569775 32429711 33789566 33749410 33169245
32129196 30769272 30029489 29529796 29639832 29959840
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