MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CDT SAT MAY 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS INTO CENTRAL AND SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 070840Z - 071015Z
   
   TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND CENTRAL MO...WITH
   ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS AND TOWARD SRN MO DURING
   THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONGER
   STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL WITH SOME EVENTS
   APPROACHING OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH.  DESPITE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   THREAT...LIMITED COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR
   A WW AT THIS TIME.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE SINCE
   07Z ALONG AND JUST S OF I-70 FROM NERN KS /INVOF MHK/ TO CENTRAL MO
   /BETWEEN SZL AND COU/.  THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG AN 850 MB
   THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W-E ACROSS NRN KS INTO CENTRAL MO AND
   WITHIN A WAA REGIME ALONG THE NOSE OF 50-60 KT LLJ EXTENDING FROM OK
   INTO ERN KS/WRN MO.  TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN KS
   AND CENTRAL TO SRN MO...PERSISTING THROUGH 12-15Z AS THE SWLY LLJ
   VEERS TO WLY.  THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY MOST
   MODELS WITH STORMS BEING FORCED BY LOW LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSE TRACKING SEWD WITHIN 50-60 KT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE STRONG
   WIND FIELDS ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION WHILE THE LLJ PROVIDES A FEED OF MUCAPE UP TO
   1000-1200 J/KG.  THESE FACTORS MAY SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH. 
   HOWEVER...THE SOMEWHAT MODEST INSTABILITY AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   7-7.5 C/KM APPEAR TO BE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT GREATER
   COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   39079367 38519065 37589079 37059137 37139355 38049574
               39159662 39079367