MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...FAR WRN OK
   INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...AND SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277...
   
   VALID 111230Z - 111330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277
   CONTINUES.
   
   RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN...S OF WW 277...WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHICH MAY REQUIRE A
   POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE TO THE S THROUGH E OF THE CURRENT WATCH
   LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SERN CO
   WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SWRN KS TO THE OK PANHANDLE
   AND THEN SWD THROUGH W TX TO JUST W OF SANDERSON TX.  MEANWHILE...A
   COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED EWD INTO FAR W TX.  THIS FRONT WAS
   APPROACHING THE DRY LINE OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE /INVOF
   AMA/...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD PARALLEL TO AND 1-2 ROWS OF
   COUNTIES W OF THE DRY LINE.
   
   ...WW 277...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE THAT HAS BEEN AN
   IMPETUS TO THE EARLY MORNING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS W TX WAS
   TRACKING NWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF
   THIS FEATURE EXTENDING SWD TO THE PERMIAN BASIN.  VADS AND WIND
   PROFILERS FROM W TX INTO OK/KS HAVE VEERED TO SWLY E OF THE COLD
   FRONT RESULTING IN A REDUCTION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  DEEP SLY
   SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT AND ONGOING
   TSTMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE QUASI-LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES WITH LOCALLY
   STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.  SOME OF THE
   ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN EXTENT OF WW 277 MAY CONTINUE TO SHIFT JUST E
   INTO OK AND NWD INTO SWRN KS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AT
   THIS TIME WILL PRECLUDE A NEW WW.
   
   ...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WRN N TX /SE-E OF WW 277/...
   THE AIR MASS S THROUGH E OF THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 277 IS STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR ALREADY RANGING FROM 30-40 KT SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT IS
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.  AS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE ABOVE
   MENTIONED VORT LOBE LIFTS NNEWD THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT.  IF
   ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE
   NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN ANGELO COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO SWRN
   PARTS OF THE NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   30660165 31080194 32200162 33740132 34730147 35630173
               36610150 37300129 37380006 36789960 34959961 33959951
               32889947 31769941 30909961 30339975 30420132 30660165