MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST TX AND EASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK TO
   FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND WESTERN AR/SOUTHWEST MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293...
   
   VALID 122330Z - 130100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH 293 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE
   PRIMARY RISK...BUT DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE AS
   WELL.
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A WEAK COLD
   FRONT/DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM FAR
   SOUTHEAST KS INTO EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX. WHILE MUCH
   OF THE WARM SECTOR IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000-3000 J PER KG
   MLCAPE/...THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM
   NEAR/NORTH OF I-40 IN FAR EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR...NORTHEASTWARD TO
   BETWEEN I-44/I-70 IN SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MO. THIS IS PERHAPS AT
   LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO MORE APPRECIABLE DPVA WHILE ALSO
   BEING MORE REMOVED FROM A DENSE EASTERN TX CIRRUS CANOPY.
   REGARDLESS...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
   EARLY/MID EVENING...WITH BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL ESPECIALLY
   AS STORMS CONTINUE TO CONGEAL WITHIN A MOIST/STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT. EVEN WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED
   SUPERCELLS...ANY TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER BRIEF/ISOLATED
   IN NATURE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKNESS NOTED IN REGIONAL
   PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWP DATA.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   33419772 34549741 35769630 37449462 37139186 33719477
               33419772