MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...
   
   VALID 291659Z - 291800Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394
   CONTINUES.
   
   BOWING QLCS OVER N-CNTRL IL WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM WW
   WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
   
   RECENT FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED OF 45-50 KT WITH THE BOWING SEGMENT
   MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL IL WOULD EXTRAPOLATE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 394
   AROUND 19Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE
   WITH WARM FRONT /ROUGHLY FROM 20 S VPZ TO DTW/ GRADUALLY SHIFTING
   NWD . MODIFIED 12Z ILX RAOB SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE RISING AOA 2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 40-50 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
   WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE PRESENCE
   OF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING STRUCTURE ALONG WITH THE WARM/MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER COULD FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS WELL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
   
   LAT...LON   40488984 41258910 41858901 42498621 42698370 42508312
               41828283 41418308 40998375 40658538 40528689 40488984