MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY ADIRONDACKS / CHAMPLAIN VALLEY / HUDSON VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 081946Z - 082045Z
   
   FORWARD PROPAGATING QLCS IN ERN ONTARIO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ESEWD
   INTO THE NY ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
   A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE DUE TO SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS IS LIKELY
   WITH THE LINE.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN AN HOUR.
   
   RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE QLCS WITH A WELL ORGANIZED
   COLD POOL FEATURING BOWING SEGMENTS MOVING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 45 KTS
   AS IT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM
   ERN ONTARIO.  THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
   QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AWAY FROM THE
   IMMEDIATE SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ACCORDING TO A MODIFIED 12Z BUF RAOB
   FOR CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE.  KBUF VAD DATA
   SHOW WSWLY FLOW OF 30-45 KTS 0.5-3.0 KM AGL UNDERNEATH PRIMARILY WLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE OVER ERN ONTARIO.  THE
   THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SERVE TO PROMOTE QLCS
   LONGEVITY/INTENSITY AS IT FORWARD PROPAGATES ESEWD INTO WRN PARTS OF
   NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL
   PROMOTE EFFICIENT DOWNWARD HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE SURFACE IN THE
   FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  ISOLD REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL
   MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES AS WELL.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   43527207 42587216 42057309 42237444 43017627 43667713
               44287631 44937499 44597338 44027248 43527207