MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1004 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MO...WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471...
   
   VALID 131504Z - 131630Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF MO WITHIN A ZONE OF SUBSTANTIAL
   850 MB THETA-E...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS ARE
   CLEARLY ELEVATED AT THIS TIME...BEING FED FROM THE W BUT MORNING
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS MAY INGEST SURFACE BASED AIR IN A FEW
   HOURS WITH HEATING INTO THE 80S F ACROSS SWRN/SRN MO. STORMS ARE
   DISSIPATING OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...AND BUT NEW ACTIVITY
   EXISTS OVER WRN IA WITH A SMALL MCS. MARGINAL ELEVATED HAIL MAY
   OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
   PROPAGATION ALONG SWRN FLANK.
   
   ALTHOUGH 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BY
   THEN HEATING WILL HAVE ERODED CAPPING OVER SRN/SWRN MO. WEAK SLY
   FLOW AT THE SURFACE...BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY IF STORMS CAN
   CONGEAL AND MOVE SEWD INTO A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT INTO AR.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   39839014 37359016 38179409 40629410 39839014