MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CO...NE...KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 140650Z - 140845Z
   
   STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
   STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TODAY. OVERALL INTENSITY/THREAT ANTICIPATED AT
   TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WATCH.
   
   COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY
   TODAY WITH A LEE LOW AND FRONT BACKED UP CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE
   AND DEEP-LAYER WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST ACROSS KS. SMALL
   MCS/MCV MOVING TOWARD NERN NEB HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG
   THE NEB/KS BORDER WWD TO NERN CO WHERE ANOTHER MCS IS PERSISTING AND
   MOVING EAST. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   ACROSS THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT...AND LARGER SCALE LIFT
   WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AMIDST MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESPITE
   ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
   VIGOR WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY LARGE AMOUNT OF INHIBITION/WARMER
   MID LEVEL AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. WHILE A LARGE HAIL EVENT OR SEVERE
   WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO
   LIMITED TO JUSTIFY A WATCH OVER THE AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   40149911 39490116 39380212 39560302 40060338 40890315
               41100259 41100184 41130104 40979997 40819942 40619904
               40149911