MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...ERN IA...MUCH OF SRN WI...CNTRL AND NRN
   IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 211645Z - 211915Z
   
   A GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND A WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER WRN IA...WITH A BROADLY CONFLUENT
   WARM SECTOR WITH THETA-E AXIS FROM SERN MN INTO NRN IL. MORNING
   SOUNDINGS SHOWED EFFECTS OF EARLY CONVECTION WITH SOMEWHAT DRY JUST
   ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 850 MB.
   
   AREAS OF HEATING...ALONG WITH GENERALLY CONVERGENT LOW
   LEVELS...SHOULD RESULT IN AN ARC OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
   STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE/STRENGTHEN NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WIND
   PROFILES VEER WITH HEIGHT BUT ARE GENERALLY MARGINAL...YET
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MARGINAL HAIL WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID
   LEVELS...AND A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WILL
   BE POSSIBLE. A FEW NWD MOVING BOWS MAY MATERIALIZE WITH TIME WITH
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...
   
   LAT...LON   40768777 40268826 39858939 39939012 40889049 42009128
               42789182 43709268 43959300 44239321 44659290 44889225
               44949167 44779074 44739065 44268863 44028786 43818759
               43028770 42338770 41658760 40958774 40768777