MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA...FAR NERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 011759Z - 011900Z
   
   AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH A THREAT OF DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL.  THE AREA
   IS BEING MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE. 
   
   COMPACT PV ANOMALY /CLEARLY EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
   CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL SD WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO ERN SD/WRN
   MN LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED
   FROM 30 NW GRI TO 20 N FSD TO 25 NW MKT...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
   POSITIONED NEAR 30 SSE YKN. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL
   SD HAS DISPLAYED THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR
   HAIL/WIND MORE RECENTLY...DESPITE BEING POSITIONED TO THE W OF THE
   COLD FRONT...AS THE POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE WARM/MOIST.
   
   AS MIDLEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY BECOMES JUXTAPOSED
   WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE. ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT...AMPLE HEATING COMBINED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE /DEW POINTS AOA 70 DEG F/ AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. MODERATELY STRONG
   MIDLEVEL FLOW /40-50 KTS AT 500 MB/ ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCED
   ASCENT SHOULD FAVOR A DMGG WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
   BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST
   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 07/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...
   
   LAT...LON   45459815 45739684 45669598 45379512 44699439 44029446
               43479482 42879563 42649619 42589692 42549769 42699869
               43219896 45189842 45459815