MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL...SERN AND E-CNTRL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 052042Z - 052145Z
   
   STRONG TO SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER DESERTS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS. TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DENOTES MULTIPLE WEAK MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
   CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SRN CO UPPER
   ANTICYCLONE. ONE SUCH FEATURE WAS LOCATED OVER SERN AZ...AND MAY
   HAVE RECENTLY AIDED IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR OLS. ADDITIONAL
   TCU/CB DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGES OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MTNS IN FAR SERN AZ. ANOTHER LARGER
   CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EWD NEAR
   THE WHITE MTNS AND MOGOLLON RIM IN E-CNTRL AZ. A TREND FOR
   INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS...WITH LOCALIZED STRONG-SVR
   DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
   
   12Z RAOBS FROM PHX/TUS ALONG WITH MORE RECENT KIWA/KTUS VAD WIND
   DATA INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF ELY FLOW /BTWN 15-20 KTS/ IS PRESENT
   ABOVE 1-2 KM AGL...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AIDING IN COLD POOL
   PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE LOWER DESERTS LATER TODAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY
   MOIST AIR MASS /1.6-1.9 INCH PWAT/ OVER CNTRL AZ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
   MLCAPE VALUES BTWN 1500-2000 J/KG...AND WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG
   THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY COLD POOLS MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
   TSTMS OVER THE DESERT FLOOR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 20 KTS WILL
   LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN PULSE TO LOOSELY ORGANIZED SMALL
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG DOWNBURST WINDS
   VIA PRECIPITATION LOADING.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 07/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   LAT...LON   31311102 31941302 32451328 33671323 34281315 34561288
               34621164 34401013 33980932 33180911 31340913 31311102