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Mesoscale Discussion 1528 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ME...NH/VT/MA...WRN CT...ERN/SRN NY...NERN
PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...607...
VALID 062203Z - 062330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
605...607...CONTINUES.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A CONTINUED SVR WEATHER THREAT INTO THE EVENING
HRS. NRN PORTION OF THE LINE OVER WRN ME...NH AND VT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONGER LOW TO MIDLEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WITH RADAR
MEASURED STORM MOTION NEAR 40 KT. FARTHER S OVER ERN/SRN NY AND NERN
PA...STORMS ARE MORE CELLULAR AND ALIGNED SLIGHTLY PARALLEL TO UPPER
FLOW...RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTIONS AROUND 25-30 KT.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM LOW 80S TO AROUND 90F...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...SFCOA GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE. IN THE SHORT-TERM...DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAXIMIZED OVER NRN PORTION OF WW 605 /WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO WW 607 DURING THE NEXT HR/ DUE TO FASTER MOTION OF THE
LINE. GIVEN WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WEAKER WIND FIELDS OVER
THE SRN HALF OF WW 605 /SRN NY...NERN PA...MA...WRN CT/...THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
..GARNER.. 07/06/2011
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 44997393 45007155 46577000 46566881 46386841 45276795
44766847 44696873 44696963 43757093 42727141 42037151
42057235 41287297 41327736 44017541 44167420 44997393
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