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Mesoscale Discussion 1566 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...WRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619...
VALID 110327Z - 110430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619
CONTINUES.
A NWD PROPAGATING MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER SCNTRL NEB THIS EVENING...
ENHANCED BY AN INCREASING H9-H85 SLY LLJ AND EFFICIENT COLD POOL
GENERATION. MODELS PROG NOSE OF THE LLJ AND BULK OF MASS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA THROUGH 09Z. ALTHOUGH
MODIFICATION OF THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING SUGGESTED INCREASED INHIBITION
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS...PLENTY OF MUCAPE EXISTS TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED STORM PROPAGATION/SUSTENANCE. QUESTION REMAINS IF STORMS
WILL MAINTAIN SFC-BASED CHARACTER OR BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME.
DRY LAYER BETWEEN H85-H7 MAY AUGMENT DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION WHATEVER
THE CASE...YIELDING AT LEAST ISOLD WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS ERN NEB AND PERHAPS WRN IA/EXTREME
SERN SD.
..RACY.. 07/11/2011
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41110032 42029869 43149686 43129593 42749556 42059570
41599571 41109644 40699760 40759874 40889962 41110032
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