MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 130004Z - 130130Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MO/SRN IL/SWRN IND MAY PROPAGATE S-SEWD INTO
   WRN KY AND PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. THOUGH
   A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 00Z SHOWED CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCREASING
   IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SRN IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES SE OF THE MO/IL
   ACTIVITY...WHERE TEMPERATURES STILL RESIDE IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS
   ARE IN THE 70S...AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG. IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT THE STORMS OVER MO/IL WILL PROPAGATE S-SEWD INTO THIS
   INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. ATTM...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER STORMS WILL
   BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN FORM A COLD
   POOL AND DEVELOP INTO AN MCS...THE WIND THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED AND
   A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 07/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   36939070 37679053 37498767 37208664 36068553 35118639
               35188842 36018997 36939070