MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161500Z - 161630Z
   
   ALTHOUGH LONGER TERM TRENDS APPEAR TO BE LEANING TOWARD WEAKENING/
   DIMINISHING...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS IN AN
   UNORGANIZED CLUSTER SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL
   NORTH DAKOTA.  ACTIVITY LIKELY IS BASED WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM
   ADVECTION REGIME...ABOVE A WEAK CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OR GENERATED
   SURFACE COLD POOL WHICH HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. 
   FORCING MAY BE ENHANCED BY A DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED
   WITH COUPLED UPPER JET STREAKS...BUT THIS MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   WEAKENING/SHIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.  STORMS
   COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE GRAND FORKS AREA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
   THROUGH THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL AND/OR A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO.  HOWEVER...IT
   CURRENTLY SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
   WEAKEN...RATHER THAN STRENGTHEN.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   48839856 49499751 49469595 48679537 47879551 47019706
               46739804 46819911 47499993 48839856