MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...EXTREME NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 201002Z - 201130Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER
   PARTS OF ND...WITH THE STRONGEST LOCATED OVER NERN ND.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF
   ACTIVITY INCREASES IN MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.
   
   STORMS APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED ATTM WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
   ABOVE THE SURFACE...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
   ACROSS EXTREME ERN MT.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE
   DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN
   00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE 3000-4000 J/KG FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
   
   PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS MT IS SPREADING ACROSS SERN SASK AND
   SRN MAN.  HOWEVER...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
   PRESSURE RISES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN ND SHORTLY AND CONTINUE
   EWD THIS MORNING.  AS THIS OCCURS...CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY
   ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO AN
   INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   ..WEISS.. 07/20/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   46740081 46970171 47320297 47970321 48870314 48930182
               48949883 48959647 48969526 48389482 47249559 46629688
               46740081