MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY...MUCH OF VT...WRN/NRN NH...WRN
   MA...NWRN CT...NERN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686...
   
   VALID 261939Z - 262045Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686
   CONTINUES.
   
   AT 1920Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
   /COMPOSED OF STORM CLUSTERS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ MOVING EWD AT
   AROUND 35 KT ACROSS WW 686. ONE BAND WAS OCCURRING CLOSE TO THE
   UPPER VORT LOBE OVER NERN NY...AND THE SECOND WAS LOCATED FROM SRN
   VT SWWD INTO SERN NY AND NERN PA. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK
   /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES AOB 1000 J PER KG/...ENX VWP SHOWS STRONG DEEP
   LAYER WLY SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT/ CONTINUES TO
   RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED SVR THREAT ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL
   NY/PA E INTO NRN VT/SERN NY DURING THE 20-23Z TIME PERIOD.
   
   ..GARNER.. 07/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   45027477 45027065 41717379 41717764 45027477