MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0834 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH AND SRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719...
   
   VALID 030134Z - 030300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719
   CONTINUES.
   
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM
   NRN IL...NRN IND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
   BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH CLUSTER MOVING INTO SWRN LOWER MI...WITH
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
   OVER NRN IL.
   
   WSWLY LLJ AND ASCENT WITH ESEWD MOVING MCV IS PROMOTING WIDESPREAD
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SRN LOWER MI. MUCH OF
   THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS...AND
   THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO OVERALL
   SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI DESPITE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
   FOR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER SOUTH BOWING SEGMENT MOVING THROUGH SRN
   LOWER MI REMAINS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT HOUR OR
   SO...BEFORE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF STORMS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
   POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING. OTHER STORMS ARE INITIATING OVER
   NRN IL ALONG INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND WRN EXTENSION OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ON ERN FRINGE OF THE VERY UNSTABLE
   WARM SECTOR /5000-6000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE
   INFLOW ALONG SWLY LLJ. THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL SERVE TO
   INCREASE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
   WATER AND INFLOW FROM THE VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...UPSCALE GROWTH
   INTO A SEVERE MCS REMAINS POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/03/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...
   
   LAT...LON   42118929 42018715 42518539 42138411 41638384 41128592
               40638856 42118929