MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1857
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MT...WRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 042024Z - 042200Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MT...THEN MOVING INTO WRN ND BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   EXIST...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 20Z SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
   E-CNTRL MT...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING E-NEWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO
   WRN-NERN ND. STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND S OF THE
   MT PORTION OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPR 80S.
   MEANWHILE...TONGUE OF UPR 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDES AHEAD OF
   THE SURFACE LOW OVER ND AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY OVER E-CNTRL/NERN MT. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF WARM/MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. THOUGH HEIGHTS ARE RISING IN THE WAKE
   OF CANADIAN PRAIRIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONVERGENCE AND
   DESTABILIZATION INVOF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING SOME
   INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS GROWTH...WHICH MAY BE FOLLOWED BY
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ADDITION...AN
   ISOLATED STORM IS EMANATING OFF OF AN ELEVATED TERRAIN FEATURE IN
   CNTRL MT...AND IT MAY PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD E-CNTRL MT.
   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL E-SELYS OVERLAYED BY 30 KT MIDLEVEL
   WLYS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   LAT...LON   45660411 45850627 46560818 47460804 48110606 48330365
               47970188 47080161 45940217 45660411