MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE INTO NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 061957Z - 062100Z
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
   TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE NEWD INTO NERN OK. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   1945Z VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU
   FIELD...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE UPPER FORCING IN ADVANCE OF A
   WEAK VORT OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY OVER NERN NM...AND A SEPARATE VORT
   MAX GLANCING THE AREA OVER ERN KS/N CNTRL OK. EARLIER STRATUS CLOUDS
   ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE AIDED IN DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING...WITH THE CU FIELD GENERALLY INCREASING SOUTH OF THE
   LINGERING STRATUS. THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/FRONTAL ZONE IN ADDITION
   TO A SERIES OF COLD POOLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REGENERATE NEW
   CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 17Z LAMONT
   SOUNDING SHOWS VERY MOIST PROFILES PRIMARILY ABOVE 700 MB...WITH
   VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AMIDST STRONG HEATING /SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 110 F/ WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
   PRECIPITATION LOADING ENHANCE DOWNBURST WINDS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO
   MODEST WSWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SEMI-ORGANIZED COLD
   POOLS...THE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FLOW COULD ALSO
   LEAD TO STORM INTERFERENCE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE IN THE
   SAME REGION.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 08/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34570030 34810152 35540063 36069994 36579816 36849663
               36539620 35569799 34570030