MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1909
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-ERN OK...EXTREME SERN KS...EXTREME
   NERN OK..SWRN MO...AR.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 748...751...
   
   VALID 090400Z - 090600Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   748...751...CONTINUES.
   
   ALTHOUGH SVR CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS...MOST
   CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE FOCUSED INTO
   COMPLEX MOVING SEWD ON EITHER SIDE OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AREAS
   FARTHER SE ACROSS AR WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...BASED ON
   TRENDS IN UPSHEAR CONVECTION AND PRECONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
   
   AS OF 330Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM COMPLEX NOW OVER WW 752 WAS
   ANALYZED FROM GLH NWD ACROSS PIKE COUNTY AR TO HASKELL COUNTY
   OK...INTERSECTING GUST FRONT PRODUCED BY BKN BAND OF TSTMS OVER NWRN
   AR AND ERN OK.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF LOW-LEVEL AIR ABOVE COOL SIDE
   OF THAT BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS STRONGEST LIFT AND MOST LONG-LIVED
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO ITS N...ESPECIALLY WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING
   LEADING TO GREATER MLCINH WITH TIME IN UNDISTURBED WARM SECTOR. 
   THIS PROCESS MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION LONGER ACROSS NWRN
   THROUGH CENTRAL AR.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHALLOW LAYER
   OF SFC-BASED STATIC STABILITY N OF BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO...REMNANT
   MIXED LAYER BETWEEN THAT AND CLOUD BASE THAT COULD SUPPORT
   EVAPORATIVE COOLING/ACCELERATION OF MOST INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH
   THAT STABLE LAYER.  AS SUCH...SVR WIND THREAT MAY BECOME MORE
   SPORADIC WITH TIME...BUT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE WW. 
   STRENGTH/DEPTH OF STABLE LAYER SHOULD INCREASE WITH NWD
   EXTENT...DIMINISHING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS OZARKS INTO SRN MO.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35229783 35719712 35689646 35559557 35889476 36319414
               36639480 36979534 37399489 37339385 36189217 35369155
               34949150 33619196 33839345 34689582 35229783