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Mesoscale Discussion 1941 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL/WRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111816Z - 111915Z
ISOLD DMGG WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED VORT MAX...LOCATED ON WV IMAGERY OVER NERN/E CNTRL AL AS OF
18Z. LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS SUPPORTED STRONG DIURNAL HEATING FROM
NERN AL SSEWD INTO MCN AND ABY GA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S...LEADING TO A 23-29 T/TD SPREAD. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS
WITH 18Z OBS SHOW NEAR 1000-1250 J/KG DCAPE...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A
DMGG WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLLAPSE OF STRONGER CORES.
NEAR 20 KT MID LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS...THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS GENERALLY SEEM TO BE
LIMITING STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A BROADER
AREA...LEADING TO ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR THAT WOULD
FAVOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
..HURLBUT.. 08/11/2011
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 31498295 31618409 32238532 33278597 33998587 33438461
32668360 32148280 31698277 31498295
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