MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0842 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND AND N-CNTRL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 150142Z - 150315Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GIVEN
   THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
   THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   AN ISOLATED STORM OVER N-CNTRL SD HAD DEVELOPED ALONG A W-E ORIENTED
   WARM FRONT. THIS STORM WAS LIKELY SFC BASED AS IT WAS ANCHORED ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT AND WAS DISPLAYING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. NORTH
   OF THE FRONT ACROSS S-CNTRL ND...A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS HAD
   DEVELOPED IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THESE STORMS APPEARED TO
   BE ELEVATED WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z RAOB FROM BIS. WITH
   TIME THE SD STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
   ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW OR MOVES OFF
   THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT BY THE 00Z ABR RAOB WHICH
   INDICATED AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB WHICH WOULD NOT
   BE SUPPORTIVE OF SFC BASED CONVECTION.
   
   THIS BEING SAID...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYERS INDICATED BY BOTH THE BIS AND ABR SOUNDINGS WOULD
   SUPPORT POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER CELLS THAT CAN BE
   SUSTAINED.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 08/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   45360139 45880184 46190191 46510190 46780147 46880072
               46900006 46529929 45589821 44919821 44369839 44269885
               44369952 45360139